Leading weather and climate scientists say Australia’s weather forecasts are under threat from deep cuts being made to key United States scientific agencies.
Since his re-election in January, President Donald Trump has taken the axe to the government workforce, with science and climate agencies taking major hits.
Already, over 1,000 jobs are reported to have been lost from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — the main agency for weather forecasting and climate monitoring.
Thousands of science grants, including for climate-related research and monitoring, have also been cancelled — the administration arguing some were promoting “implausible climate threats contributing to… ‘climate anxiety”’.
And there are even larger cuts on the table.
The president’s 2026 budget request has proposed substantial funding reductions to both NOAA and NASA, including the elimination of NOAA’s main research arm and a loss of nearly half of the funding for NASA’s science branch.
NASA plays a significant role in weather and climate forecasting through its Earth science research and satellite missions.
Mr Trump has instead asked for money to be funnelled toward “beating China back to the Moon” and on “putting the first human on Mars”.
The ongoing cuts have prompted concerns within the US about the country’s forecasting capabilities, which were thrust into the spotlight in July when over 100 people, including dozens of children, died during unprecedented flash flooding in Texas.
But there are also worries the changes will have serious impacts beyond US borders, including Australia, which relies on US data and research in its daily and long-term forecasts.
Florian Pappenberger, the incoming director-general of one of the world’s leading forecasting services, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECWMF), said the budget and staffing cuts would “without a doubt” affect the accuracy of global forecasts.
“We will lose forecast skill,” Dr Pappenberger, who currently leads the Forecasts and Services Department, said.
“The forecast will not be as good. There’s no question about that.”
He said it was particularly concerning given that extreme weather events were increasing with climate change, making the quality of forecasting more important than ever.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology uses the ECMWF model every day in its forecasting.
The concerns have been echoed by several Australian climate scientists, including Monash University research scientist Andrew Watkins, who called for Australia to review its dependency on US data and work to fill potential gaps.
“So the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) access model, the model that does the weather forecast for the next day, it’s got a high reliance upon data from the US,” Dr Watkins, who was in charge of the BOM’s long-range forecasts until recently, said.
“So, what we’re concerned about is the loss of data … but also observations. And there’s some really critical things that are at risk right now to Australia.”
BOM has said their service so far has not been impacted, with it maintaining “close contact” with the relevant US agencies on any proposed or actual changes in policy and access to data.
To forecast what’s going to happen with our weather and future climate, forecasters rely on observations from around the world, including satellites, weather balloons, ocean buoys, and weather stations.
The data gathered by these instruments is fed into models, helping build a picture of the current state of the atmosphere, which can then be used to work out what is likely to happen next.
“It’s a bit like if you’re going on a road trip,” Dr Watkins said.
“To plan your journey to get to the other end, you actually need to know where you are right now, you need to know the starting point.”
Cuts already affecting Australia
The world works together on this — not even the Cold War could stop it — with agencies from around the globe all contributing to the gathering and sharing of data and observations to build a picture of the Earth in its current state.
But Dr Watkins said the US contributed a “disproportionately high” share of this data.
“The US has actually been probably the global exemplar here … for handing out data freely, making it open access to everything from their satellites, from their models, their ships, from their ocean buoys,” he said.
“They have really set the standard here, possibly to the extent that the rest of the world becomes overly reliant upon the US.”
An example is NOAA’s fleet of ocean sensors — known as the ARGO floats — which make up more than half of the global fleet.
NOAA also oversees the Mauna Loa Observatory, in Hawaii, which has maintained the world’s longest continuous record of our greenhouse gas emissions.
Both of these services are being threatened by funding cuts, with the president’s proposed 2026 budget putting an end to Mauna Loa, along with three other key observatories.
The loss of long-term monitoring programs was of particular concern to the ECWMF’s Dr Pappenberger.
“You can always restart balloons,” he said.
“But a 50-year measurement record, if you’ve interrupted that once, you’re never going to get that data back.”
There is still a lot of uncertainty both on the ground and abroad about exactly what will be lost.
Proposed cuts that could affect Australia
Presidential budget proposals are not a guarantee — more like wish lists that often bear little resemblance to final congressional budgets.
There has already been pushback from congressional committees to the proposed cuts to both NOAA and NASA, according to local media.
But there are serious concerns about the current political climate in the US, and the amount of control the administration holds.
“In this case, because of the nature of the political appointees and the amount of control that the administration is taking over these agencies … [there are concerns it’s] really moving towards actual implementation,” Johns Hopkins University professor Ben Zaitchik said.
Dr Watkins said the uncertainty alone made it challenging for people in the field in Australia.
“It’s very hard to run an operational service, something that must run 24/7, if it’s uncertain what data or information will be available,” he said.
Another big concern is for the loss of expertise — something University of Tasmania climate scientist Tas van Ommen said was often overlooked.
Already, hundreds of experienced staff members have left NOAA as part of the workforce reduction efforts.
“The loss of expertise means even if you can measure change, you lose your ability to understand what those observations are telling us,” he told ABC Radio Hobart.
“Why, for example, the North Atlantic had record heat waves in 2023 or why the Antarctic sea ice cover is collapsing at the moment.
“The expertise that actually explains these things builds better understanding into the models and allows us to improve our climate and weather model performance.”
In the US, Professor Zaitchik, the chair of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins University, said scientific progress was already being fractured by the uncertainty.
“I mean, this is an unprecedented politicisation of science,” he said.
Some of the impacts of the cuts are already being noticed, with the ECMWF reporting a 10 per cent reduction in weather balloon observations.
Still, Dr Pappenberger said the ECMWF routinely prepared for unexpected data loss and was constantly looking for new data sources.
It’s a similar story at the BOM, which has a range of strategies in place to make sure forecasts are reliable, even when data is lost.
As for many of the other cuts, scientists say they will likely take time to be felt by the general public.
But Dr Watkins, and other local climate scientists, said there were things Australia could do to limit those impacts, starting with a review of where the biggest holes would be.
“I think it’s more around whether we are putting too many eggs in single baskets here, whether it be the US or others,” he said.
He said Australia should also look to strengthen its partnerships with other countries to fill any gaps, and increase its own monitoring.
“We need to think about ‘what should our national capability really be here’ and ‘who should we partner’ with … particularly as our climate gets more extreme,” he said.
A spokeswoman for the BOM said they were already working to add additional observational data into their models to protect them against the known loss of some US satellite data.
“The Bureau also has options to access satellite data from international partners such as Japan, South Korea, China and the EU, as well as the private sector if required,” she said.
For lots of people, the weather forecast is often the first thing they check in the morning.
It’s something communities depend on — from planning daily life activities to limiting the impacts of disasters.
The four-day forecast issued today is as accurate as the two-day forecast of 10 years ago, according to the BOM.
Professor Ben Zaitchik said it was important we did not take the quality of these forecasts for granted.
“People like to complain, joke about weather forecasts, but they’re really good now. We plan our lives around them,” he said.
“They’re good because our science is better. They’re good because our observations have gotten better and our ability to integrate those observations.
“If you start degrading those observational abilities, your weather forecast will get worse. And that affects everybody.”